Iran Insanity Update

I read an account by a member of the paratroop regiment serving in the Falklands conflict.  After the surrender of the Argentine forces some bored members of the regiment were play a game of cricket, with hand grenades and some improvised bat.  The batter would have to hit the grenades into the sea where they could safely explode.

This reminds me of the games that we are playing at the moment with Iran.  Maybe we are all bored and in need of some entertainment–not able to get the kick out of destroying other people’s countries we need to make the game a little more exciting.  Let us hope that we keep on hitting the grenades into the sea.

Many with a good knowledge of what is going on, and a good track record in finding things out, are saying that we are nat making any sense.  Nothing has changed since the Iraq fiasco.  But when the fireworks start this time we are all going to get seriously hurt.  Before we started destroying the Iraqi people and their country they were an industrialized country with cities, hospitals, schools, power grids, water treatment and so on.  We systematically wrecked that so it makes a good study of what could happen in the industrial world if we pull down all those systems.  They, and our economies, are all dependent on oil.

This is why the Iranians have no need for a strategic nuclear deterrent.  They just need control a single narrow shipping lane.  They have always been clear about this, and they have had plenty of time to prepare.

Nothing that we are doing makes any sense at all.  We accuse them of undermining the nuclear weapons proliferation agreements, but it is us that are destroying these agreements.  We accuse them of destabilising the middles east but it is us that are doing so.  We accuse them of supporting terrorism and yet we hear that the Bush administration has asked for $400m from Congress to terrorize Iran and Congress are playing along and considering authorizing a naval blockade of Iran.  And we continue to terrorize and kill people in the region in quite high numbers, far, far higher numbers than the paramilitary groups that we obsess over.

We are nuts.  I don’t know how it is going to play out and it is not worth losing sleep over.  Worrying is a mug’s game.  All I can do is call it as I see it.

For those that are interested, Seymour Hersh and Scott Ritter have interviews (Hersh, Ritter) and articles (Hersh, Ritter) spelling out what is going on.  Gordon Prather’s articles on nuclear weapons proliferation are excellent, as are Gareth Porter’s on the wider issues.

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4 responses to “Iran Insanity Update

  1. Nous Tenons Á Notre Avis

    It is in our nature to believe that our opinion is the right opinion. But everyone, be they liberal or conservative, understands that another war will break the back of the American economy.

    Add to this the fact that Iran has over ten million men of military age, and it becomes an issue of both blood and treasure. The only way that America can stand against such an opposition is through a prolonged campaign of lethal air strikes, which will involve the slaughter of innocent civilians and bring the rightful outrage of the entire world upon our heads.

    Not only would an attack against the sovereign state of Iran be wrong, it would be extremely foolish.

    President Bush-
    Il ne desire pas paix
    Il ne desire rien mais guerre.
    Il tient un livre de douleur et larmes
    Il tient á ouvrir.
    Il ne parait pas que il comprend
    Il ne s’agit pas de legs…
    Il ne faut pas ouvrir ce livre
    Il ne contiennent que mort.

  2. Nobody doubts that the USA can inflict enormous damage on Iran through a sustained aerial bombardment. There is equally little doubt that the region will go up in flames and the world economy will collapse in the process. We are seeking the destruction of the Iranian regime so why should they behave any differently.

  3. Hi, this is totally right! your government is nuts but so is Iranian government (ours!). The sad truth is that the Iranian government (or some crazy people in the government including the president) would welcome the war as it will give them the opportunity to suppress all the activists inside as they did during Iran-Iraq war. In a war situation no one would be able to talk about human rights abuses as all the focus will be to fight “enemies”.
    I just wish that the two nuts will not cause another war and cause more suffering of another nation.

  4. I think the Iranian government is much, much less nuts than the industrial nations. I know that there is much about it that is not particularly good, but since 2001 they have been having to deal with an ultra-aggressive US-administration bent on doing the same to Iran as they have done in Iraq.

    The aggressive anti-Israeli rhetoric needs to be understood in this context.

    Do they want an attack from the US and Israel? I doubt it. They would rather get their regional leadership recognized and be able to do business without the tiresome sanctions.

    For sure if Iran is attacked there will be a rallying around the regime and they are going to cover this eventuality, but I truly think they are trying to do what they can to avoid it.

    Their earlier talking down of the situation–that it was all bluster is consistent with this as is their actions in Iraq where they could make much trouble. Their recent change to upping the ante, as Ritter explains in the interview with Horton is likewise consistent with deterring an attack.

    The regime has many faults, but they have been very adept at dealing with this kind of aggression. They have been as strategically adept as the Bush administration has been strategically stupid; all they have really had to do is capitalise on their mistakes.

    I don’t buy the thesis that they want to shore up the revolution with a war. If it comes to it they will make use of the war to this end. Much more desirable (and profitable) would be a deal with the USA, but they won’t get it through appeasement. It can only come through proper negotiations where Iran’s interests are respected.

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